Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Multiple outcomes

I'll try to rationalize the rule on multiple outcomes.

The rule
Multiple outcomes and a success.

The number of possible successful outcomes equals the positive difference between the target number and the sum of the dice roll used to determine the success of the initiative. Outcomes becomes true in the order in which they were proposed by the conch holder.
Example: An initiative is made with four outcomes. The target number is 11 and the sum of 3D6 is 9. The first three (11-9) outcomes are said to be true, leaving the last one false.

The rationale
Two neutral initiative (target=10) have a combined probability of consecutive success of 0.25. If one combines the two outcomes into 1 initiative, the success of both outcomes will have a base target number of 9. It is thus slightly advantageous to tack in two outcomes to one initiative for as long as the base target of the argument is 10. If it is any different because the base target is set by training/complexity (see table in the rules), the initial advantage dissapears. This is so because the difference in probability in the 9-11 range is flatter than for the rest of the spectrum.

The downside is, however, that the logical link between the outcomes can be attacked with CONs arguments/facts. At -2 per cons, any advantage is lost unless the link between both outcomes is rock solid.

More than 2 outcomes makes less sense, unless the conch holder sees the additional outcomes as nice to have bonuses.